Nigeria’s N58.47 trillion 2026 budget has ignited a fierce confrontation between the Senate and the federal government’s economic team, exposing deep tension over oil revenue assumptions, mounting debt and persistent capital implementation challenges.
What began as a routine engagement between the Senate Committee on Appropriations and the federal government’s economic managers inside the National Assembly of Nigeria quickly evolved into a tense debate over fiscal credibility and political accountability.
At the centre of the debate is the largest appropriation proposal in Nigeria’s history, presented under the administration of Bola Tinubu.
Leading the Senate’s position was the committee chairman, Olamilekan Adeola, while the federal government’s delegation included the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun; Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Atiku Bagudu; Minister of State for Finance, Doris Uzoka-Anite; Chairman of the Federal Inland Revenue Service, Zacch Adedeji; and the Accountant General of the Federation, Shamsedeen Babatunde Ogunjimi.
Revenue Assumptions Under Scrutiny
Lawmakers questioned the realism of the revenue projections underpinning the N58.472 trillion budget, particularly oil earnings which have repeatedly fallen below expectations in recent years.
Adeola reminded the economic team that the assumptions used in the proposal originated from the executive arm and must therefore withstand detailed legislative scrutiny.
He cited previous fiscal cycles where oil revenue performance dropped significantly below projections, raising concerns about systemic overestimation.
“How do we explain such underperformance?” Adeola asked. “Do we reduce this budget or leave it as it is?”
The Senate is reportedly considering trimming the proposal if stronger guarantees of revenue realism are not provided.
Central to the dispute is the 1.84 million barrels per day oil production benchmark. Edun described the figure as a “stretch target,” arguing that ambitious projections encourage improved performance.
However, lawmakers remain cautious due to longstanding challenges such as oil theft, pipeline vandalism and global price volatility.
Capital Implementation Concerns
Beyond projections, senators also raised concerns over repeated delays in implementing capital projects across Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs).
Despite yearly allocations for infrastructure and development projects, capital releases have often fallen short.
Responding to the concerns, Uzoka-Anite assured lawmakers that payments for outstanding 2024 capital projects were commencing and that MDAs had been directed to upload their cash plans for 2025 to facilitate prompt disbursement.
She also stated that full implementation of the 2024 and 2025 capital components is expected before March 31, 2026.
Debt Pressures and Fiscal Sustainability
The debate also spotlighted Nigeria’s rising debt profile, estimated by lawmakers at about N152 trillion.
Adeola proposed asset sales as a strategy to reduce borrowing pressure and lower long-term debt servicing costs.
Edun, however, argued that Nigeria’s main challenge lies in the high cost of borrowing in global markets rather than its debt-to-GDP ratio.
He noted that Nigeria is currently chairing discussions at the Intergovernmental Group of Twenty-Four focusing on debt sustainability issues affecting developing economies.
Meanwhile, Adedeji stressed the importance of realistic budgeting, warning that inflated projections could create structural fiscal risks.
Economic Outlook and Reform Agenda
Edun presented a cautiously optimistic outlook for the economy, noting improvements in inflation trends, foreign reserves and exchange rate stability.
He also highlighted increased investor confidence, referencing a reported $20 billion investment commitment by Shell plc.
According to him, the administration aims to raise investment levels to 30 per cent of GDP and achieve annual economic growth of seven per cent.
Despite the optimism, senators emphasised that macroeconomic improvements must translate into tangible outcomes for citizens through completed infrastructure projects and improved living conditions.
Following nearly two hours of public discussions, the engagement moved into a closed-door session, where further deliberations are expected to shape the final structure of the 2026 Appropriation Bill.
As lawmakers continue reviewing the proposal, the outcome may significantly influence Nigeria’s fiscal direction and the broader reform credibility of the Tinubu administration.
